Working Papers
International Economic Sanctions and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes
With Madeline Fleishman and Peter B. White
Abstract: Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community—economic sanctions. In this article, we argue that the impact of economic sanctions depends on whether they are threatened or imposed. The threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and also makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of civil war escalation will decrease. We test implications of this argument through a quantitative analysis focusing on a set of potential civil wars—self-determination disputes—and find support for our arguments.
With Madeline Fleishman and Peter B. White
Abstract: Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community—economic sanctions. In this article, we argue that the impact of economic sanctions depends on whether they are threatened or imposed. The threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and also makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of civil war escalation will decrease. We test implications of this argument through a quantitative analysis focusing on a set of potential civil wars—self-determination disputes—and find support for our arguments.
Regional Approaches to Conflict Prevention: The Effectiveness of Rhetorical and Diplomatic Tools
With Jori Brelawski and Madeline Fleishman
Abstract: Research has shown that international actors can contribute to the resolution of and reductions of violence in civil wars through actions such as mediation and peacekeeping. In this article, we focus on conflict prevention, and argue that regional organizations deploying relatively low-cost tools are poised to be effective at preventing conflict from escalating. We present new data on conflict management activities by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), identifying two sets of tools—rhetorical and diplomatic. We examine how these activities affect violence in member states and find that rhetorical and diplomatic activity by ECOWAS is generally associated with reductions in violent events as well as fatalities in the following month. The analyses in this article show that ROs can be effective conflict managers and that early engagement in intrastate disputes, including through relatively low-cost activities such as rhetorical and diplomatic tools—can reduce violence.
With Jori Brelawski and Madeline Fleishman
Abstract: Research has shown that international actors can contribute to the resolution of and reductions of violence in civil wars through actions such as mediation and peacekeeping. In this article, we focus on conflict prevention, and argue that regional organizations deploying relatively low-cost tools are poised to be effective at preventing conflict from escalating. We present new data on conflict management activities by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), identifying two sets of tools—rhetorical and diplomatic. We examine how these activities affect violence in member states and find that rhetorical and diplomatic activity by ECOWAS is generally associated with reductions in violent events as well as fatalities in the following month. The analyses in this article show that ROs can be effective conflict managers and that early engagement in intrastate disputes, including through relatively low-cost activities such as rhetorical and diplomatic tools—can reduce violence.
An Integrated Picture of Conflict
With Eric Dunford, David Backer, Karsten Donnay, and Erin McGrath
Abstract: Growth in event datasets is fostering research about patterns, dynamics, causes, and consequences of conflict. Studies typically rely on a single dataset. Instead, we advocate integrating multiple datasets to improve measurement and analysis. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of integrating multiple datasets to improve measurement and analysis. We generate an integrated dataset covering Africa from 1997-2016 of four leading datasets (ACLED, UCDP-GED, SCAD, and GTD) with overlapping coverage of diverse types of conflict events. Using the integrated dataset, we document events that should be included, yet are missing in individual datasets. We also show that results of studies about the relationship between climate and conflict are sensitive given the conceptualization of conflict reflected by particular datasets. These illustrations highlight the potential for integration to advance conflict research by yielding a more complete and accurate picture of activity, which has repercussions for both descriptive and theoretical findings. Integration is likely to be increasingly worthwhile as event datasets proliferate, expand in coverage, and exhibit wider applications.
With Eric Dunford, David Backer, Karsten Donnay, and Erin McGrath
Abstract: Growth in event datasets is fostering research about patterns, dynamics, causes, and consequences of conflict. Studies typically rely on a single dataset. Instead, we advocate integrating multiple datasets to improve measurement and analysis. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of integrating multiple datasets to improve measurement and analysis. We generate an integrated dataset covering Africa from 1997-2016 of four leading datasets (ACLED, UCDP-GED, SCAD, and GTD) with overlapping coverage of diverse types of conflict events. Using the integrated dataset, we document events that should be included, yet are missing in individual datasets. We also show that results of studies about the relationship between climate and conflict are sensitive given the conceptualization of conflict reflected by particular datasets. These illustrations highlight the potential for integration to advance conflict research by yielding a more complete and accurate picture of activity, which has repercussions for both descriptive and theoretical findings. Integration is likely to be increasingly worthwhile as event datasets proliferate, expand in coverage, and exhibit wider applications.