Working Papers
International Economic Sanctions and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes
With Madeline Fleishman and Peter B. White
Abstract: Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community—economic sanctions. In this article, we argue that the impact of economic sanctions depends on whether they are threatened or imposed. The threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and also makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of civil war escalation will decrease. We test implications of this argument through a quantitative analysis focusing on a set of potential civil wars—self-determination disputes—and find support for our arguments.
With Madeline Fleishman and Peter B. White
Abstract: Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community—economic sanctions. In this article, we argue that the impact of economic sanctions depends on whether they are threatened or imposed. The threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and also makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of civil war escalation will decrease. We test implications of this argument through a quantitative analysis focusing on a set of potential civil wars—self-determination disputes—and find support for our arguments.
Regional Approaches to Conflict Prevention: The Effectiveness of Rhetorical and Diplomatic Tools
With Jori Brelawski and Madeline Fleishman
Abstract: Research has shown that international actors can contribute to the resolution of and reductions of violence in civil wars through actions such as mediation and peacekeeping. In this article, we focus on conflict prevention, and argue that regional organizations deploying relatively low-cost tools are poised to be effective at preventing conflict from escalating. We present new data on conflict management activities by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), identifying two sets of tools—rhetorical and diplomatic. We examine how these activities affect violence in member states and find that rhetorical and diplomatic activity by ECOWAS is generally associated with reductions in violent events as well as fatalities in the following month. The analyses in this article show that ROs can be effective conflict managers and that early engagement in intrastate disputes, including through relatively low-cost activities such as rhetorical and diplomatic tools—can reduce violence.
With Jori Brelawski and Madeline Fleishman
Abstract: Research has shown that international actors can contribute to the resolution of and reductions of violence in civil wars through actions such as mediation and peacekeeping. In this article, we focus on conflict prevention, and argue that regional organizations deploying relatively low-cost tools are poised to be effective at preventing conflict from escalating. We present new data on conflict management activities by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), identifying two sets of tools—rhetorical and diplomatic. We examine how these activities affect violence in member states and find that rhetorical and diplomatic activity by ECOWAS is generally associated with reductions in violent events as well as fatalities in the following month. The analyses in this article show that ROs can be effective conflict managers and that early engagement in intrastate disputes, including through relatively low-cost activities such as rhetorical and diplomatic tools—can reduce violence.
Can Mediation Prevent Civil War in Self-Determination Disputes?
With Leo Bauer, Megan Lloyd, and Sloan Lansdale
Abstract: Mediation is a tool used frequently by international actors to try to reduce violence and resolve intrastate disputes. A large literature has shown that mediation can contribute to durable civil war ending settlements. Mediation is also used in disputes that are not in active armed conflict, and we know much less about the use of mediation as a tool of conflict prevention. In this article, we argue that mediation is particularly well suited to preventing disputes from escalating to violence. We analyze the role of mediation in conflict prevention using new data that we have collected on the use of mediation in a random sample of self-determination disputes. We find that self-determination disputes that are not in armed conflict frequently experience mediation, and some suggestive evidence that mediation can contribute to the prevention of civil war in these disputes.
With Leo Bauer, Megan Lloyd, and Sloan Lansdale
Abstract: Mediation is a tool used frequently by international actors to try to reduce violence and resolve intrastate disputes. A large literature has shown that mediation can contribute to durable civil war ending settlements. Mediation is also used in disputes that are not in active armed conflict, and we know much less about the use of mediation as a tool of conflict prevention. In this article, we argue that mediation is particularly well suited to preventing disputes from escalating to violence. We analyze the role of mediation in conflict prevention using new data that we have collected on the use of mediation in a random sample of self-determination disputes. We find that self-determination disputes that are not in armed conflict frequently experience mediation, and some suggestive evidence that mediation can contribute to the prevention of civil war in these disputes.