Working Papers
International Economic Sanctions and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes
With Madeline Fleishman and Peter B. White
Abstract: Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community—economic sanctions. In this article, we argue that the impact of economic sanctions depends on whether they are threatened or imposed. The threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and also makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of civil war escalation will decrease. We test implications of this argument through a quantitative analysis focusing on a set of potential civil wars—self-determination disputes—and find support for our arguments.
With Madeline Fleishman and Peter B. White
Abstract: Can international sanctions prevent civil war? Despite the increased scholarly and policy focus on conflict prevention, we lack an understanding of the impact of a commonly used tool of the international community—economic sanctions. In this article, we argue that the impact of economic sanctions depends on whether they are threatened or imposed. The threat of sanctions leads states to decrease repression and increase accommodation, thus decreasing the likelihood of civil war. The imposition of sanctions, however, incentivizes the state to increase repression and also makes the state a more attractive target for dissidents. Both dynamics make civil war more likely in the short term. Over time, however, states can adapt to the new economic reality created by a sanctions regime, and the risk of civil war escalation will decrease. We test implications of this argument through a quantitative analysis focusing on a set of potential civil wars—self-determination disputes—and find support for our arguments.
Regional Approaches to Conflict Prevention: The Effectiveness of Rhetorical and Diplomatic Tools
With Jori Brelawski and Madeline Fleishman
Abstract: Research has shown that international actors can contribute to the resolution of and reductions of violence in civil wars through actions such as mediation and peacekeeping. In this article, we focus on conflict prevention, and argue that regional organizations deploying relatively low-cost tools are poised to be effective at preventing conflict from escalating. We present new data on conflict management activities by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), identifying two sets of tools—rhetorical and diplomatic. We examine how these activities affect violence in member states and find that rhetorical and diplomatic activity by ECOWAS is generally associated with reductions in violent events as well as fatalities in the following month. The analyses in this article show that ROs can be effective conflict managers and that early engagement in intrastate disputes, including through relatively low-cost activities such as rhetorical and diplomatic tools—can reduce violence.
With Jori Brelawski and Madeline Fleishman
Abstract: Research has shown that international actors can contribute to the resolution of and reductions of violence in civil wars through actions such as mediation and peacekeeping. In this article, we focus on conflict prevention, and argue that regional organizations deploying relatively low-cost tools are poised to be effective at preventing conflict from escalating. We present new data on conflict management activities by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), identifying two sets of tools—rhetorical and diplomatic. We examine how these activities affect violence in member states and find that rhetorical and diplomatic activity by ECOWAS is generally associated with reductions in violent events as well as fatalities in the following month. The analyses in this article show that ROs can be effective conflict managers and that early engagement in intrastate disputes, including through relatively low-cost activities such as rhetorical and diplomatic tools—can reduce violence.
Where do mediators try to prevent civil war?
With Leo Bauer, Megan Lloyd, and Sloan Lansdale
Abstract: Mediation has emerged as a crucial instrument employed by external actors to resolve conflicts and mitigate violence. While existing research has extensively examined mediation within civil wars, the use of mediation to prevent conflicts before they escalate remains understudied. We address this gap in the literature by investigating the determinants of mediation efforts in the context of conflict prevention, specifically within self-determination disputes. Focusing on a sample of 57 self-determination disputes spanning from 1991 to 2015, this article introduces the first comprehensive cross-national data set on mediation events in such disputes, irrespective of war. Drawing on the mediation literature, we argue that dynamics at multiple levels, group, state, regional, and global, shape the likelihood that mediation is employed in a self-determination dispute. Our quantitative analysis shows that rebel groups engaged in civil war, previous mediation efforts and violent tactics increase the likelihood of mediation, while state-level factors such as regime type produce a mixed effect necessitating further study. Overall, this article enhances our understanding of the intricate dynamics that guide external actors' mediation strategies, shedding light on the patterns of mediation in the realm of conflict prevention.
With Leo Bauer, Megan Lloyd, and Sloan Lansdale
Abstract: Mediation has emerged as a crucial instrument employed by external actors to resolve conflicts and mitigate violence. While existing research has extensively examined mediation within civil wars, the use of mediation to prevent conflicts before they escalate remains understudied. We address this gap in the literature by investigating the determinants of mediation efforts in the context of conflict prevention, specifically within self-determination disputes. Focusing on a sample of 57 self-determination disputes spanning from 1991 to 2015, this article introduces the first comprehensive cross-national data set on mediation events in such disputes, irrespective of war. Drawing on the mediation literature, we argue that dynamics at multiple levels, group, state, regional, and global, shape the likelihood that mediation is employed in a self-determination dispute. Our quantitative analysis shows that rebel groups engaged in civil war, previous mediation efforts and violent tactics increase the likelihood of mediation, while state-level factors such as regime type produce a mixed effect necessitating further study. Overall, this article enhances our understanding of the intricate dynamics that guide external actors' mediation strategies, shedding light on the patterns of mediation in the realm of conflict prevention.